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Other aspects of the disease that make this difficult to manage include:
Other aspects of the disease that make this difficult to manage include:


* median incubation period: According to research published in ''Annals of Internal Medicine'', the median (i.e., the central tendancy, which is less skewed than average<ref name="NRCSMedian">{{cite web |url=https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/normals/median_average.htm |title=Median vs. Average to Describe Normal |author=National Water and Climate Center |publisher=U.S. Department of Agriculture |accessdate=01 April 2020}}</ref>) incubation period is 5.1 days, with 97.5% of symtomatic carriers showing symptoms within 11.5 days.<ref name="LauerTheInc20">{{cite journal |title=The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application |journal=Annals of Internal Medicine |author=Lauer, S.A.; Grantz, K.H.; Bi, Q. et al. |year=2020 |doi=10.7326/M20-0504 |pmid=32150748 |pmc=PMC7081172}}</ref>
* Median incubation period: According to research published in ''Annals of Internal Medicine'', the median (i.e., the central tendancy, which is less skewed than average<ref name="NRCSMedian">{{cite web |url=https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/normals/median_average.htm |title=Median vs. Average to Describe Normal |author=National Water and Climate Center |publisher=U.S. Department of Agriculture |accessdate=01 April 2020}}</ref>) incubation period is 5.1 days, with 97.5% of symtomatic carriers showing symptoms within 11.5 days. The authors found this to be compatible with U.S. government recommendations of monitored 14-day self-quarantines if individiuals were at risk of exposure.<ref name="LauerTheInc20">{{cite journal |title=The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application |journal=Annals of Internal Medicine |author=Lauer, S.A.; Grantz, K.H.; Bi, Q. et al. |year=2020 |doi=10.7326/M20-0504 |pmid=32150748 |pmc=PMC7081172}}</ref> However, many people continue to not take self-quarantines and other forms of social distancing seriously<ref name="PinskerWhatDo20">{{cite web |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/convince-family-take-coronavirus-seriously/608356/ |title=What Do You Tell Someone Who Still Won’t Stay Home? |author=Pinsker, J. |work=The Atlantic |date=19 March 2020 |accessdate=01 April 2020}}</ref><ref name="KeatingWhenThe20">{{cite web |url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/shannonkeating/coronavirus-social-distancing-self-isolation-quarantine |title=When The People You Love Can’t Accept That They Need To Stay Home |author=Keating, S. |work=BuzzFeed News |date=17 March 2020 |accessdate=01 April 2020}}</ref><ref name="JacksonPolice20">{{cite web |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/violating-coronavirus-orders-trnd/index.html |title=Police are arresting and fining people for violating social distancing orders |author=Jackson, A. |work=CNN |date=31 March 2020 |accessdate=01 April 2020}}</ref>





Revision as of 17:34, 1 April 2020


1. Overview of COVID-19 and its challenges

1.1 COVID-19: The terminology

A pneumonia-like outbreak was fully in process in Wuhan, located in the Hubei province of China, by December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified by the end of the month that the cause could be a novel threat to the larger populace.[1] By the end of January, the WHO had declared the growing viral threat a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), an act which includes with it a need "to implement a comprehensive risk communication strategy."[2] As the disease progressed beyond its Chinese origins, public confusion slowly grew regarding the terminology surrounding the disease. Leaders at the WHO and the Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses came to different naming conclusions, differing in their naming conventions and adding to the confusion.[3][4] In the end, "COVID-19" has ended up as the common disease name, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is a member of the coronavirus family. Today, however, some still refer to the disease simply as "coronavirus," which is in errror.

This isn't the first time a disease has had a different name from its associated virus. One should look back to 1982, when the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) gave the name "acquired immune deficiency syndrome" or "AIDS" to the disease associated with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (a member of the retrovirus family).[5] It took time for the layman to get used to the terminology, and even then some still ended up mistakenly refering to the disease as "HIV."

Consistent terminology is vital to communicating technical material to a global audience.[6][7] With that in mind, it's beneficial to ensure everyone is clear one the terms used. For purposes of this guide:

  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (otherwise known as COVID-19) is the respiratory disease being discussed in this guide.
  • SARS-CoV-2 is the virus responsible for COVID-19.
  • Coronavirus (or Coronaviridae) is a family of related viruses, of which SARS-CoV-2 is a member.
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome (otherwise known as SARS) is a different respiratory disease, which surfaced in the early 2000s, caused by a related but different type of coronavirus (SARS-CoV or SARS-CoV-1).
  • Middle East respiratory syndrome (otherwise known as MERS) is a different respiratory disease, which surfaced in 2012, caused by a related but different type of coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

1.2 COVID-19: History and impact (so far)

The first known case of COVID-19 dates back to November 2019, "according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post."[8] By the middle of December, infections were at 27, and by the end of the year the number was 266.[8] By that time, Chinease health authorities had been updated that the pneumonia-like symptoms of patients in China's Hubei province may have been the symptoms of a disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus[8], and the WHO was notified.[1] At the start of 2020, that number grew to 381 known cases[8], jumping to more than 7,700 confirmed and 12,000 suspected cased by the end of January.[2] By that time, the WHO had convened a second meeting of its Emergency Committee to discuss the declaration of a PHEIC, saying the then-called "2019-nCoV" constituted a health emergency of international concern.[2] This spurred the publishing of WHO technical advice to other countries, with a focus on "reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread, and contributing to the international response."[2] However, at the same time, the virus was already beginning to spread in locations such as Australia[9], France[10], Germany[11] Italy[12], Japan[13], South Korea[14], Spain[15], the United Kingdom[16], and the United States.[17]

As the disease continued to spread in February, naming conventions came together, with the WHO declaring the disease's name "COVID-19," short for "coronavirus disease 2019."[3][4] By the end of the month, the WHO warned a "very high" likelihood the virus's spread could turn into a full pandemic.[18]

On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 a pandemic, noting more than 118,000 confirmed cases and 4,000 deaths on all continents except Antarctica.[19]


1.3 Challenges of managing the disease in the human population

COVID-19 has presented numerous societal challenges, from supply line interruptions and economic sagging to overwhelmed healthcare systems and civil disorder. However, these are largely the social, economic, and political ripple effects of a disease that has brought with it a set of inherent attributes that make it more difficult to manage in human populations than say the flu.

However, COVID-19 is not the flu, and it is indeed worse in its effects than the flu, contrary to many people's perceptions. Yes, COVID-19 and the flu have some symptom overlap. Yes, COVID-19 and the flu have some transmission type overlap. But from there it diverges. COVID-19 is different in that is more prone to be transmitted to others during the presymptomatic phase. The disease may also be transmittable in other ways, such as an airborne route, though research is ongoing. Hospitalization rates are higher, perhaps up to 10 times higher than the flu, and hospital stays are longer with COVID-19. People are dying more often from COVID-19 too, up to 10 times more often than people stricken with the flu. And of course, whereas people have been acquiring the flu vaccine yearly, limiting the percentage of the population that becomes ill, there is yet no vaccine for COVID-19, meaning everyone is susceptible.[20][21][22]

Other aspects of the disease that make this difficult to manage include:

  • Median incubation period: According to research published in Annals of Internal Medicine, the median (i.e., the central tendancy, which is less skewed than average[23]) incubation period is 5.1 days, with 97.5% of symtomatic carriers showing symptoms within 11.5 days. The authors found this to be compatible with U.S. government recommendations of monitored 14-day self-quarantines if individiuals were at risk of exposure.[24] However, many people continue to not take self-quarantines and other forms of social distancing seriously[25][26][27]



References

  1. 1.0 1.1 Hui, D.S.; Azhar, E.I.; Madani, T.A. et al. (2020). "The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health—The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China". International Journal of Infectious Diseases 91: 264–66. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009. PMID 31953166. 
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 World Health Organization (30 January 2020). "Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)". World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov). Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  3. 3.0 3.1 Enserink, M. (12 February 2020). "Update: ‘A bit chaotic.’ Christening of new coronavirus and its disease name create confusion". Science. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/bit-chaotic-christening-new-coronavirus-and-its-disease-name-create-confusion. Retrieved 30 March 2020. 
  4. 4.0 4.1 Jiang, S.; Shi, Z.; Shu, Y. et al. (2020). "A distinct name is needed for the new coronavirus". The Lancet 395 (10228): 949. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30419-0. PMID 32087125. 
  5. Oppenheimer, G.M. (1992). "Chapter 2: Causes, Cases, and Cohorts: The Role of Epidemiology in the Historical Construction of AIDS". In Fee, E.; Fox, D.M.. AIDS: The Making of a Chronic Disease. University of California Press. pp. 49–83. ISBN 0520077784. https://books.google.com/books?id=CmME6xfdEFAC&pg=PA49. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  6. Kohl, J.R. (2008). The Global English Style Guide: Writing Clear, Trnaslatable Documentation for a Global Market. SAS Institute. ISBN 9781599946573. 
  7. Megathlin, B.A.; Langford, R.S. (1991). "Controlling the Unruly: Terminology". 1991 Proceedings 38th International Technical Communication Conference: WE22–WE24. 
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Ma, J. (13 March 2020). "Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17". South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  9. Hunt, G. (25 January 2020). "First confirmed case of novel coronavirus in Australia". Australian Department of Health. https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/first-confirmed-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-australia. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  10. Jacob, E. (24 January 2020). "Coronavirus: trois premiers cas confirmés en France, deux d’entre eux vont bien". Le Figaro. https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/coronavirus-trois-premiers-cas-confirmes-en-france-20200124. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  11. Der Spiegel (28 January 2020). "Bayerische Behörden bestätigen ersten Fall in Deutschland". https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-virus-erster-fall-in-deutschland-bestaetigt-a-19843b8d-8694-451f-baf7-0189d3356f99. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  12. Severgnini, C. (30 January 2020). "Coronavirus, primi due casi in Italia «Sono due cinesi in vacanza a Roma» Sono arrivati a Milano il 23 gennaio". Corriere della Sera. https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_gennaio_30/coronavirus-italia-corona-9d6dc436-4343-11ea-bdc8-faf1f56f19b7.shtml. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  13. Sim, W. (16 January 2020). "Japan confirms first case of infection from Wuhan coronavirus; Vietnam quarantines two tourists". The Straits Times. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-confirms-first-case-of-infection-with-new-china-coronavirus. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  14. Jin-woo, S. (24 January 2020). "신종 코로나바이러스 한국인 첫환자 확인". Maekyung.com. https://www.mk.co.kr/news/society/view/2020/01/80017/. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  15. Linde, P. (31 January 2020). "Sanidad confirma en La Gomera el primer caso de coronavirus en España". El País. https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/01/31/actualidad/1580509404_469734.html. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  16. Ball, T.; Wace, C. (31 January 2020). "Hunt for contacts of coronavirus-stricken pair in York". The Times. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hunt-for-contacts-of-coronavirus-stricken-pair-in-york-dh363qf8k. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  17. Holshue, M.L.; DeBolt, C.; Lindquist, S. et al. (2020). "First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States". New England Journal of Medicine 382 (10): 929–36. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001191. PMID 32004427. 
  18. Mulier, T. (28 February 2020). "WHO Raises Global Risk for Coronavirus to Very High". Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-28/who-raises-global-risk-for-coronavirus-to-very-high-from-high. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  19. Gumbrecht, J.; Howard, J. (11 March 2020). "WHO declares novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic". CNN Health. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/health/coronavirus-pandemic-world-health-organization/index.html. Retrieved 31 March 2020. 
  20. Huang, P. (20 March 2020). "How The Novel Coronavirus And The Flu Are Alike ... And Different". NPR: Goats and Soda. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  21. Resnick, B.; Animashaun, C. (18 March 2020). "Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart". Vox. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/18/21184992/coronavirus-covid-19-flu-comparison-chart. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  22. Kumar, V. (27 March 2020). "COVID-19 has been compared to the flu. Experts say that's wrong". ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-compared-flu-experts-wrong/story?id=69779116. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  23. National Water and Climate Center. "Median vs. Average to Describe Normal". U.S. Department of Agriculture. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/normals/median_average.htm. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  24. Lauer, S.A.; Grantz, K.H.; Bi, Q. et al. (2020). "The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application". Annals of Internal Medicine. doi:10.7326/M20-0504. PMC PMC7081172. PMID 32150748. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7081172. 
  25. Pinsker, J. (19 March 2020). "What Do You Tell Someone Who Still Won’t Stay Home?". The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/convince-family-take-coronavirus-seriously/608356/. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  26. Keating, S. (17 March 2020). "When The People You Love Can’t Accept That They Need To Stay Home". BuzzFeed News. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/shannonkeating/coronavirus-social-distancing-self-isolation-quarantine. Retrieved 01 April 2020. 
  27. Jackson, A. (31 March 2020). "Police are arresting and fining people for violating social distancing orders". CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/violating-coronavirus-orders-trnd/index.html. Retrieved 01 April 2020.